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Canadian Dollar Morning Update

By Updates (2013-2014)

Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.053 – 1.059

Update: The Canadian Dollar is lower for a sixth day in a row and trading at its lowest level in six weeks. While most of the recent move has been due to a broad demand for the US Dollar, in the last couple of days we are seeing some selling specific to the Loonie, probably due to mild inflation figures released this morning and weak retail sales data from yesterday. The Loonie is now trading at 1.055 and down nearly 2% this week.

The Big Picture: The commodity boom has seemingly ended (or is at least sputtering). Relatedly, Chinese and other emerging market economies have …

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Canadian Dollar Morning Update

By Updates (2013-2014)

Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.047 – 1.054

Update: The US Dollar continued to make broad gains against most major currencies both before and after yesterday’s release of the FOMC minutes which seemingly confirmed that tapering is coming later this year. The Loonie is now trading at 1.051 and down 1.6% this week. There is quite a bit of focus on rising government bond yields which in some cases are at multi-year highs and coincide with news that RBC is raising its mortgage rates. As Bloomberg reports today, rising bond yields and the falling Loonie are creating exactly the kinds of conditions that the Bank of Canada was looking to create by moving the economy away from domestic spending towards export-led growth.

The Big Picture: The commodity boom has seemingly ended (or is at least sputtering). Relatedly, Chinese and other emerging market economies have …

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Canadian Dollar Morning Update

By Updates (2013-2014)

Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.037 – 1.042

Update: After a quiet Monday, overnight news has weakened the Canadian Dollar by 0.5% against the USD to 1.039. The Loonie is also down substantially against the Euro (1.1%). Signals from Australia’s central bank signalling a weak dollar policy have been dragging down all commodity-currencies, including the Loonie. Significantly weaker than expected Wholesale Trade Sales figures released this morning and soft commodity prices have contributed to the weakness of the Loonie. All eyes are focused on tomorrow’s release of FOMC minutes which may provide additional colour as to the timing of “tapering” by the US central bank.

The Big Picture: The commodity boom has seemingly ended (or is at least sputtering). Relatedly, Chinese and other emerging market economies have …

Read More

Canadian Dollar Morning Update

By Updates (2013-2014)

Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.030 – 1.038

Update: A quiet morning for the Canadian Dollar with no major data releases scheduled either in Canada or in the US. Unsurprisingly, there is little volatility in the exchange rate and the Loonie is trading right around Friday’s closing levels of 1.034. The focus continues in the short term to be on any news that might provide a clue as to the Fed’s decision on tapering in September.

The Big Picture: The commodity boom has seemingly ended (or is at least sputtering). Relatedly, Chinese and other emerging market economies have …

Read More

Canadian Dollar Morning Update

By Updates (2013-2014)

Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.031 – 1.036

Update: The picture is still murky but in the battle of relative economic performance (which is what is driving the USD/CAD exchange rate these days), America is ahead this morning. Construction and productivity figures released this morning in the US came in at or above expectations. In Canada on the other hand, manufacturing sales in June were down 0.5% while economists had expected an increase of 0.3%. Not surprisingly, the Loonie is down 0.3% against the US Dollar and hovering at the 1.034.

The Big Picture: The commodity boom has seemingly ended (or is at least sputtering). Relatedly, Chinese and other emerging market economies have …

Read More

Canadian Dollar Morning Update

By Updates (2013-2014)

Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.030 – 1.038

Update: At the moment, the driving force in the USD/CAD market is the relative economic performance of the two countries and the market analyzes every bit of data for clues on which economy is doing better. This morning’s data reinforces the previously emerging picture of mediocre economic performance in each country. In the US, initial jobless claims are down to the lowest level in about six years and stronger than expected. Inflation figures came in as expected and a measure of manufacturing activity came in below expectations. At the same time, a mixed picture is emerging in the housing market in Canada. The CMHC is lowering its forecasts for new housing starts in 2014 but suggests that housing market is generally stabilizing in the second half of 2013 after a slowdown in first half. In short, the US economy continues to grow enough to generate a moderate level of jobs but probably not enough to generate worrisome inflation figures. Similarly, the Canadian economy chugs along but probably not enough to move Poloz to do anything at the moment. The net impact of the mixed data: USD/CAD is at 1.034 this morning.

The Big Picture:The commodity boom has seemingly ended (or is at least sputtering). Relatedly, Chinese and other emerging market economies have …

Read More

Canadian Dollar Morning Update

By Updates (2013-2014)

Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.029 – 1.035

Update: On Friday, the Canadian Dollar was strong despite a very weak jobs number, helped by strong commodity prices and the perception that the very weak jobs numbers was a blip on the data screen. There is little on the calendar in terms of economic news today and the market is looking at the retail sales data out of the US tomorrow for guidance. The announcement that Blackberry may be sold will not have an impact on the value of USD/CAD as the company is too small and at this point the possibility of a sale too uncertain.

The Big Picture: The commodity boom has seemingly ended (or is at least sputtering). Relatedly, Chinese and other emerging market economies have …

Read More