Updates (2013-2014)

Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.032 – 1.040

Update: Employment figures out this morning in Canada show a collapse in job creation in July. Expectations were for an increase of 10k but the actual figure was a loss of 39k jobs. Quebec was the worst-performing province with 30k jobs lost and Alberta was the best performer with 17k jobs created. Ontario came in flat. The Canadian Dollar reacted immediately by giving up 60 pips to trade around 1.035. We continue to believe that the relative economic performance of the two countries as reflected in the data over the next few weeks will be the driving factor for USD/CAD rate in the near future.

The Big Picture: The commodity boom has seemingly ended (or is at least sputtering). Relatedly, Chinese and other emerging market economies have …

Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.038 – 1.045

Update: Housing price figures in Canada and jobs numbers in the US came in at slightly better than expected levels this morning. The currency market barely reacted with the Loonie strengthening slightly but continuing to trade at around three week lows against the US Dollar. Markets are now focused on employment numbers in Canada due to be released tomorrow at 8.30.

The Big Picture: The commodity boom has seemingly ended (or is at least sputtering). Relatedly, Chinese and other emerging market economies have …

Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.039 – 1.047

Update: The US Dollar is trading at the highest level in about three weeks against the Loonie and we suggest sellers of US Dollars take advantage of the move. Markets globally are in “risk-off” mode and not surprisingly the Canadian Dollar is declining. In fact, the Canadian Dollar is the worst performer of the majors so far today. The markets are again considering the implications of a global tightening of monetary policy with the focus this time on the Bank of England’s somewhat hawkish language. Yesterday, two separate Federal Reserve officials indicated that the expected “tapering” in the United States could begin as early as September. In Canada, the only notable economic data point of the day was building permits which showed significant weakness (down 10.3% vs. an expected decline of 2.8%) adding to the Loonie’s weakness.

The Big Picture: The commodity boom has seemingly ended (or is at least sputtering). Relatedly, Chinese and other emerging market economies have …

Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.035 – 1.040

Update: After an eventful week of central bank watching, the focus for the Canadian Dollar now turns to economic data with the jobs data on Friday a big focus for the Loonie. There is some speculation in the market that the weak jobs number out of the US last week might be reason to think that the Canadian employment figures will also come in below expectations. Given the focus that the Central Bank has shown in the past on housing prices, we will also be watching housing numbers out later this week in Canada.

The Big Picture: The commodity boom has seemingly ended (or is at least sputtering). Relatedly, Chinese and other emerging market economies have …

Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.029 – 1.037

Update: Slightly weaker than expected growth figures in Canada and stronger than expected growth figures in the US have moved the loonie lower against the greenback. We continue to expect more volatility during the day as the markets await any additional color on the timing of “tapering” by the Fed 2 pm.

The Big Picture: The commodity boom has seemingly ended (or is at least sputtering). Relatedly, Chinese and other emerging market economies have …

Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.024 – 1.030

Recent Developments: Slightly higher than expected industrial price figures in Canada this morning barely moved the Loonie. The Canadian Dollar remains at one month highs with all eyes now focused on the Fed announcement tomorrow and any clues it might provide as to when the US central bank intends to “taper” its monetary stimulus programs. Also, tomorrow Canadian GDP figures could be a catalyst for a move.

The Big Picture: The commodity boom has seemingly ended (or is at least sputtering). Relatedly, Chinese and other emerging market economies have …

Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.026 – 1.031

Recent Developments: The Canadian Dollar should be generally stable and trading at one month highs with a light economic calendar early in the week. The market is focused on the Fed announcement on Wednesday where there could be additional indications as to the timing of the expected “tapering” of monetary stimulus. Also, on Wednesday we will get a monthly reading on Canadian GDP figures. We do not expect the HBC deal announced this morning to have anything other than minor and temporary impact on the loonie.

The Big Picture: The commodity boom has seemingly ended (or is at least sputtering). Relatedly, Chinese and other emerging market economies have …

Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.026 – 1.033

Recent Developments: The Canadian Dollar continues to hover at one month highs against the greenback. Data from the US remains mixed with housing numbers yesterday morning very strong and jobless figures in line this morning.

The Big Picture: The commodity boom has seemingly ended (or is at least sputtering). Relatedly, Chinese and other emerging market economies have …

Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.026 – 1.033

Recent Developments: The Canadian Dollar continues to hover at one month highs against the greenback. The North American economic calendar is light with the only notable item being US New Home Sales to be released at 10 this morning. After that the market will be focused on tomorrow’s US jobless figures. We expect little volatility for the day in the Loonie.

The Big Picture: The commodity boom has seemingly ended (or is at least sputtering). Relatedly, Chinese and other emerging market economies have …

Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.028 – 1.035

Recent Developments: Strong retail sales figures in Canada and weaker than expected manufacturing figures in the US (all released this morning) have propelled the loonie to its strongest level in about a month. Other factors causing the short term strength are the recent strength in the price of gold as well as the market’s evolving view as to the expected timing of Fed tapering. The market is now focused on US jobs numbers out later this week.

The Big Picture: The commodity boom has seemingly ended (or is at least sputtering). Relatedly, Chinese and other emerging market economies have …