Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.030 – 1.038
Update: At the moment, the driving force in the USD/CAD market is the relative economic performance of the two countries and the market analyzes every bit of data for clues on which economy is doing better. This morning’s data reinforces the previously emerging picture of mediocre economic performance in each country. In the US, initial jobless claims are down to the lowest level in about six years and stronger than expected. Inflation figures came in as expected and a measure of manufacturing activity came in below expectations. At the same time, a mixed picture is emerging in the housing market in Canada. The CMHC is lowering its forecasts for new housing starts in 2014 but suggests that housing market is generally stabilizing in the second half of 2013 after a slowdown in first half. In short, the US economy continues to grow enough to generate a moderate level of jobs but probably not enough to generate worrisome inflation figures. Similarly, the Canadian economy chugs along but probably not enough to move Poloz to do anything at the moment. The net impact of the mixed data: USD/CAD is at 1.034 this morning.
The Big Picture:The commodity boom has seemingly ended (or is at least sputtering). Relatedly, Chinese and other emerging market economies have slowed notably. At the same time, the ongoing (admittedly halting) recovery in the US will sooner or later lead to a tapering of the Fed’s bond purchase programs. As to the timing of the announcement, there seems to be broad consensus forming about tapering beginning later this year with a majority of analysts focused on September. Closer to home, Canada’s new central banker shows no inclination towards tightening in the near future. As a result of all of this and not surprisingly, the CAD has declined 4% relative to the USD since the beginning of the year. We expect the CAD to be even lower relative to its US counterpart by the end of the year.
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