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Updates (2013-2014)

Canadian Dollar Morning Update

Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.029 – 1.035 Update:  On Friday, the Canadian Dollar was strong despite a very weak jobs number, helped by strong commodity prices and the perception that the very weak jobs numbers was a blip on the data screen.  There is little on the calendar in terms of economic news today and the market is looking at the retail sales data out of the US tomorrow for guidance.  The announcement that Blackberry may be sold will not have an impact on the value of USD/CAD as the company is too small and at this point the possibility of a sale too uncertain. The Big Picture: The commodity boom has seemingly ended (or is at least sputtering). Relatedly, Chinese and other emerging market economies have slowed notably. At the same time, the ongoing (admittedly halting) recovery in the US will sooner or later lead to a tapering of the Fed’s policies aimed at balance sheet expansion. Closer to home, Canada’s new central banker shows no inclination towards tightening in the near future. As a result of all of this and not surprisingly, the CAD has declined 5% relative to the USD since the beginning of the year. We expect the CAD to be even lower relative to its US counterpart by the end of the year.

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