The impending cancellation of the Keystone XL project continues to weigh on the Canadian dollar, despite modestly improved risk sentiment this morning. The Canadian currency is slightly (0.15%) stronger against the US dollar after losing substantial ground in the last few trading sessions but the Loonie is underperforming most other major currencies. The US markets reopened on a positive note with large financial firms reporting much better than expected earnings. That bout of optimism has for now halted the rise of the US dollar, which has been gaining momentum since the beginning of 2021, as investors move to riskier assets. All eyes are on Janet Yellen who will testify before Congress today as part of her confirmation as Treasury Secretary. Her primary message is expected to be to urge large fiscal stimulus, which will be pro growth and potentially put downward pressure on the US dollar. But her testimony is also expected to indicate a sharp turn away from Trump’s weak dollar policy. The fate of the USD to CAD exchange rate today will be largely dependent on the weight and emphasis that she places on each of those divergent messages. Tomorrow, the focus will be on the Bank of Canada and its Monetary Policy Report.
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