The markets are taking a bit of a breather. Stocks are down slightly from record levels. Oil prices are flattish and even bitcoin is down a bit today. The USD to CAD rate is also unchanged from yesterday afternoon and the Canadian dollar is now right back near where it started the year. The picture of the economy that the markets are pricing in right now is that the the consumer is doing well, that companies and consumers are flush with cash despite the slow employment recovery, that central banks remain very cautious about pulling back stimulus despite signs of inflation and the fact that asset prices are at record levels, and that significant fiscal stimulus on both sides of the border is likely for the foreseeable future. Anything that disturbs that picture will move the exchange rate. The record outflow of capital from Canada noted yesterday (mostly in the form of investment in US stocks) is concerning for the Canadian dollar but that figure is usually very volatile and won’t directly impact exchange rates unless the trend continues for a few months.
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