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USD to CAD Update: CAD trading below recent range as USD holds gains

By November 5, 2021March 7th, 2024No Comments
October job creation in Canada was below expectations while US job creation was somewhat above expected levels.  Canada had already returned to pre-pandemic level in total number of jobs in September and has now added 31k new jobs in October (versus an expected 50k).  It is hard to make much of the exact number of jobs created in either country given the unevenness in Covid-related issues impacting different regions.  Overall, the economic picture remains the same; we have had a strong recovery but the the last bit remains uncertain.  On the monetary policy front, the last two weeks have shown that most major central banks remain more dovish on rate hikes than the markets had expected.  The Band of England, the European Central Bank, the US Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia have all pushed back on expectations for early rate hikes.  The Bank of Canada was an outlier in meeting the market’s expectations by moving forward the expected date of rate hikes.  In the currency exchange markets, US dollar indices (measuring USD against a basket of currencies) remain within striking distance of one-year highs, indicating broad US dollar gains in the last couple of months.  Those gains have been neutralized to date against the Canadian dollar by high oil prices, but WTI has now drifted to a couple of dollars away from one-month lows removing a major source of support for the currency.  It is no wonder then that the Canadian dollar has broken out of its recent ranges on the downside and is now also nearing a one-month low.  We continue to think that in the near-term the risks to the loonie are to the downside.  At the moment, USD to CAD is at 1.246 (CAD to USD is at 0.802).

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