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USD to CAD Morning Update — June 19, 2020

Retail sales in Canada fell by 26% from March as a result of the shutdowns but rebounded by 19% in May as a result of the reopening.  That sort of data is not especially indicative right now of the nature of the recovery, on which the markets are focused because there is too much noise in the information.  The USD/CAD rate is currently more focused on bigger picture issues.  For example, the speech by the deputy governor of the Bank of Canada yesterday was interesting as it highlighted a higher savings rate during the crisis and possibly some pent-up demand.  Today, the markets are starting out positive with stocks and oil up significantly.  As has been the case for almost every day since the crisis started, the Canadian dollar is correlated to those two assets and is up 0.2%.


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