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Updates (2013-2014)

Canadian Dollar Morning Update

Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.032 – 1.040 Update:  Employment figures out this morning in Canada show a collapse in job creation in July.  Expectations were for an increase of 10k but the actual figure was a loss of 39k jobs.  Quebec was the worst-performing province with 30k jobs lost and Alberta was the best performer with 17k jobs created.  Ontario came in flat.  The Canadian Dollar reacted immediately by giving up 60 pips to trade around 1.035.  We continue to believe that the relative economic performance of the two countries as reflected in the data over the next few weeks will be the driving factor for USD/CAD rate in the near future. The Big Picture: The commodity boom has seemingly ended (or is at least sputtering). Relatedly, Chinese and other emerging market economies have slowed notably. At the same time, the ongoing (admittedly halting) recovery in the US will sooner or later lead to a tapering of the Fed’s policies aimed at balance sheet expansion. Closer to home, Canada’s new central banker shows no inclination towards tightening in the near future. As a result of all of this and not surprisingly, the CAD has declined 5% relative to the USD since the beginning of the year. We expect the CAD to be even lower relative to its US counterpart by the end of the year.

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