USD to CAD has been mostly rangebound between 1.20 to 1.21 since mid May. This morning, the US currency is up broadly and trading just above upper end of that range (up 0.5% against CAD since last night). The US dollar is being pushed up by a solid May jobs report that came in well above expectations and confirmed that the US economic recovery is on track. That report was being watched closely since the same report showed a surprisingly large miss in job creation for April. While the prevailing view has been that the US dollar would continue to decline as the world economy recovers from Covid, there is a fear that a surprisingly strong U.S. economic rebound poses a threat to the assumption that interest rates will stay low for a long time. That minority view has gained the upper hand this morning with the strong May US jobs performance and that same sentiment is causing yields to creep up and stocks to trade down. The next couple of days could see elevated volatility in USD to CAD as the markets absorb the US jobs news and Canada releases its own May jobs numbers tomorrow morning.
