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USD to CAD Update: Retail Sales in US Surprise to the Upside while Manufacturing Sales in Canada Disappoint

After giving up some ground yesterday, the Canadian dollar is now trading at the middle of the range of where it has been trading since mid August.  This morning it is trading just 0.1% above where it was most of the day yesterday.  An interesting pattern is developing in economic data.  While in most economic sectors, the picture is mixed, retail sales numbers continue to surprise to the upside.  That was the case this morning in the US where retail sales in September grew 1.9%, more than twice the expected number.  One interpretation is that the North American consumer is not quite as stretched as imagined.  Another is that when you give everyone government help, they will go out and spend it.  Regardless, the positive retail sales data has improved overall sentiment this morning with stocks up modestly and the US dollar down slightly.  In Canada, manufacturing sales came in slightly below expectations in August but did not move the Canadian dollar.  The Bank of Canada announced the unwinding of some of its emergency programs but they were programs that had already fallen out of use as the economic emergency phase of the pandemic has long passed.

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