This morning, the Canadian dollar is experiencing its first significant down move since the beginning of October. The Loonie is down 0.6% as stock decline (1%) and oil sells off (3%). Some of the concerns are all familiar; the lack of a stimulus deal in the US and the resurgence of the coronavirus in much of the developed world. Adding to those issues, there is a worse-than-expected weekly jobless claims number from the US, and a so-far mixed earnings season that supports the idea that the recovery has been more K-shaped than V-shaped, with some industries and companies emerging stronger than ever and others still mired in deep economic difficulty. In Canada, perhaps inevitably, the Bank of Canada is increasingly finding itself in the middle of the political debate. The Conservatives are warning that continued support of the government’s fiscal spending will cause a lower Canadian dollar and inflation. It remains to be seen whether that rhetorical posture ultimately impacts the Bank of Canada’s actions but needless to say it is a situation worth watching closely for future developments.
