The white line is the current spot price. The orange line is the consensus of the analyst for the end of the year and the red line is the implied…
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Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.030 – 1.038
Update: At the moment, the driving force in the USD/CAD market is the relative economic performance of the two countries and the market analyzes every bit of data for clues on which economy is doing better. This morning’s data reinforces the previously emerging picture of mediocre economic performance in each country. In the US, initial jobless claims are down to the lowest level in about six years and stronger than expected. Inflation figures came in as expected and a measure of manufacturing activity came in below expectations. At the same time, a mixed picture is emerging in the housing market in Canada. The CMHC is lowering its forecasts for new housing starts in 2014 but suggests that housing market is generally stabilizing in the second half of 2013 after a slowdown in first half. In short, the US economy continues to grow enough to generate a moderate level of jobs but probably not enough to generate worrisome inflation figures. Similarly, the Canadian economy chugs along but probably not enough to move Poloz to do anything at the moment. The net impact of the mixed data: USD/CAD is at 1.034 this morning.
The Big Picture:The commodity boom has seemingly ended (or is at least sputtering). Relatedly, Chinese and other emerging market economies have …
In the last five days the best performers among the majors have been, in order, AUD, CAD, and NZD. How do you say “commodity currencies” on top in Aussie or…
Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.032 – 1.037 Update: The Canadian dollar is mildly stronger this morning after a report out of the euro area indicated stronger than expected economic growth and…