Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.027 – 1.034

Update: The Canadian Dollar is flat to yesterday’s North American close at 1.029. Figures released this morning in Canada reaffirm that inflationary pressures are tame and far from the top range of the Bank of Canada’s target. The US Dollar continues to be weak across the board as the repercussions of the shutdown are becoming apparent with the main impact in the currency exchange market being the newly emerging consensus that tapering of the monetary stimulus programs may not begin until 2014.

The Big Picture: The commodity boom has seemingly ended (or is at least sputtering). Relatedly, Chinese and other emerging market economies have …

Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.028 – 1.035

Update: The US debt ceiling has been raised and the government has been reopened. The Canadian Dollar is trading at a one week high at 1.031. In fact the US Dollar is weaker against all major currencies as the extended standoff in Washington has pushed consensus expectations as to the timing of tapering by the Fed to 2014. We tend to agree with that consensus. Now, the focus returns to economic data and the strength of the economy both here in Canada as well as the US. The debt ceiling debate will be revisited after the holidays at which point the dynamics will be entirely different.

The Big Picture: The commodity boom has seemingly ended (or is at least sputtering). Relatedly, Chinese and other emerging market economies have …

Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.034– 1.038

Update: The US Senate seems to be getting close to a deal that would end the shutdown and extend the debt ceiling for the next several months. It is unclear how such a deal would be received in the House and there is, in our opinion, every chance that there will be a market scare before this is resolved. Regardless, equity markets have reacted positively as have all “risk assets” such as the Canadian Dollar which is now trading at 1.036.

The Big Picture: The commodity boom has seemingly ended (or is at least sputtering). Relatedly, Chinese and other emerging market economies have …

Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.037– 1.042

Update: The Canadian economy created 11,900 jobs last month, topping forecasts. The unemployment rate fell to 6.9%. The loonie reacted by gaining 15 pips but then almost immediately gave up the gains as the market refocused on developments out of Washington. The loonie is trading at 1.039 and “shutdown watch” continues.

The Big Picture: The commodity boom has seemingly ended (or is at least sputtering). Relatedly, Chinese and other emerging market economies have …