Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.034– 1.038
Update: The US Senate seems to be getting close to a deal that would end the shutdown and extend the debt ceiling for the next several months. It is unclear how such a deal would be received in the House and there is, in our opinion, every chance that there will be a market scare before this is resolved. Regardless, equity markets have reacted positively as have all “risk assets” such as the Canadian Dollar which is now trading at 1.036.
The Big Picture: The commodity boom has seemingly ended (or is at least sputtering). Relatedly, Chinese and other emerging market economies have slowed notably and while some of the data from China is encouraging, it is becoming clear that sub 8% growth in China is here to stay. At the same time, the ongoing (admittedly halting) recovery in the US will sooner or later lead to a tapering of the Fed’s bond purchase programs. Closer to home, Canada’s new central banker is optimistic about our recovery but shows no inclination towards raising rates in the next several quarters. As a result of all of this and not surprisingly, the CAD has declined over 3% relative to the USD since the beginning of the year. We expect the CAD to be even lower relative to its US counterpart by the end of the year.
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