Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.053 – 1.059

Update: The Canadian Dollar is back at near three month lows as the oil trades down after an agreement was reached between Iran and world powers to halt the advancement of Iran’s nuclear activity in exchange for limited sanctions relief. The loonie is down nearly half a penny and trading at around 1.056 to the US Dollar. The US Dollar is stronger across the board as oil importing currencies globally benefit from the decline in oil prices. While the agreement with Iran does not bring any new oil to the market in the next several months, it is widely viewed as reducing geopolitical risk and the risk premium in oil prices. We believe that while in the long run this deal may change the dynamics of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the backlash against this deal may manifest itself in ways that dampen the impact on oil prices. As such, we think the US Dollar sellers should take advantage of the opportunity.

The Big Picture: Canada’s new central banker is cautiously optimistic about the economy but shows no inclination towards raising rates in the next several quarters. In fact, the low dollar policy being pursued by the bank suggests …

Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.053 – 1.057

Update: The Canadian Dollar is at its lowest level since early September. The sell-off reflects a variety of factors, including the market’s ongoing response to dovish comments by Poloz as well as weaker commodity prices. For the first time in a while there was quite a bit of attention being paid to this morning’s CPI figures in Canada. They came in generally in line with expectations and confirmed that inflation is below the Bank of Canada’s target range. Retail sales for September were quite a bit stronger than expected in Canada. The releases did not impact the market and he loonie continues to hover around 1.055.

The Big Picture: Canada’s new central banker is cautiously optimistic about the economy but shows no inclination towards raising rates in the next several quarters.  In fact, the low dollar policy being pursued by the bank suggests …

Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.047 – 1.052

Update: It has been all about US economic data the last couple of mornings. Retail sales came in stronger than expected and CPI came in at expected levels yesterday morning. This morning, initial jobless claims came in slightly below expectations PPI was just above expectations. All in all, a mixed picture of the economy providing no particular clue about how quickly the Fed will begin tapering its extraordinary monetary stimulus. Closer to home, Governor Poloz gave testimony before the Senate which was interpreted as dovish, leading to weakness in the Canadian Dollar which is currently trading at 1.049.

The Big Picture: Canada’s new central banker is cautiously optimistic about the economy but shows no inclination towards raising rates in the next several quarters. In fact, the low dollar policy being pursued by the bank suggests …

Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.042 – 1.047

Update: Another generally directionless morning looms for the Canadian Dollar. On the one hand, the dovish comments by outgoing Fed Chairman Berananke led to US Dollar weakness overnight. On the other hand, strong retail sales figures from our southern neighbors suggest the US economy is stronger than the recent comments by Fed officials imply. At the moment, we are trading around 1.045 and there is little reason to think we will see a break out in either direction unless we see a surprise in the Fed release scheduled for 2 PM today.

The Big Picture: Canada’s new central banker is cautiously optimistic about the economy but shows no inclination towards raising rates in the next several quarters. In fact, the low dollar policy being pursued by the bank suggests …