Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.065 – 1.070

Update: According to this morning’s data, the US is humming along just fine with manufacturing leading and consumers dragging. GDP grew at 3.6% in Q3 (above consensus of 3.1%) and jobless figures came in slightly below expectations. In Canada, the building permits figure came in at well above expectations and probably heightens the tension between the Bank of Canada’s desire to stimulate export growth without fueling asset bubbles. The Canadian Dollar is flat to yesterday’s close at 1.068.

The Big Picture: Canada’s new central banker is cautiously optimistic about the economy but shows no inclination towards raising rates in the next several quarters. In fact, the low dollar policy being pursued by the bank suggests …

Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.062 – 1.068

Update: The day has already been eventful and we are only getting started. One measure of private sector hiring in the US suggested a stronger than expected US employment picture and reignited the debate on the timing of tapering. Canadian International Merchandise Trade for October was well ahead of expectations. The net result was the Canadian Dollar trading slightly weaker at 1.066. All eyes are now on the Bank of Canada and its rate decision later this morning. No rate cuts are expected but there is a minority view that the bank may lean dovish versus the status quo of a neutral stance on cuts.

The Big Picture: Canada’s new central banker is cautiously optimistic about the economy but shows no inclination towards raising rates in the next several quarters. In fact, the low dollar policy being pursued by the bank suggests …

Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.062 – 1.068

Update: Sentiment on the Canadian Dollar continues to be decidedly negative. There is now a minority but apparently growing view that Poloz is more dovish than the market had originally realized and that his focus on keeping inflation above the lower end of the stated desired range may lead to an interest rate cut. As a result of this renewed focus on the Bank of Canada, tomorrow’s monthly interest rate announcement is shaping up to be an interesting event. While no change in rates are expected, the Canadian Dollar bears will be looking for affirmation of their view in the text of the release.

The Big Picture: Canada’s new central banker is cautiously optimistic about the economy but shows no inclination towards raising rates in the next several quarters. In fact, the low dollar policy being pursued by the bank suggests …