fbpx Skip to main content

Cart

Updates (2013-2014)

Canadian Dollar Update

By February 27, 2014No Comments
Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.109 – 1.115 Update: Mixed economic data in the US (stronger than expected durable claims and weaker than expected jobs figures) failed to move the Canadian dollar rate and we are essentially flat to last night’s close. We are now waiting for Janet Yellen’s testimony before the Senate as a potential forex catalyst. Tomorrow’s GDP figures in Canada and the US are also potential catalysts. There is a large option expiry on the loonie at 10.00 AM and we expect the loonie to be trading in tight ranges until at least that time. The Big Picture: The Bank of Canada remains cautiously optimistic on the Canadian economy but dropped its tightening bias in October. Indeed, at the moment, the primary concern of Governor Poloz seems to be inflation rates that are well below the Bank’s 2% target and the consequent possibility of disinflation (declining inflation rates as opposed to the scarier prospect of deflation). With concerns about elevated household debt levels and an overheated housing market still lurking in the background, the Central Bank faces an interesting challenge in balancing the need for economic growth against further increases in household debt or frothy activity in the residential real estate market. All of which brings us to the Canadian Dollar; while the level of exchange rates is not explicitly within the mandate of our Central Bank, the value of the Canadian Dollar is now implicitly in the crosshairs of Governor Poloz as possibly the only mechanism for stimulating economic activity without further burdening the household sector. The Bank went as far as explicitly referencing Canadian Dollar strength as a problem in its most recent Monetary Policy Report. Interestingly, the Governor has commented that the link between a stronger US economy and greater exports is not as strong as he would prefer, arguably further fueling the view that a lower Canadian Dollar is what he would prefer. In the United States, the ongoing (somewhat halting) recovery has led the Federal Reserve to begin the process of cutting back (“tapering”) its two remaining extraordinary monetary stimulus programs. Globally, the commodity boom has ended (or is at least sputtering). Relatedly, Chinese and other emerging market economies have slowed notably and while some of the data from China is encouraging, it is becoming clear that sub 8% growth in China is here to stay. As a result of all of this and not surprisingly, the CAD has declined near 10% in the past 12 months and we expect it to continue an orderly and gradual decline in 2014.


Are you looking for a better exchange rate?

Get the best exchange rate

Receive daily updates on Canadian dollar

Account to Account Service at Interchange Currency Exchange

Account to Account

If you have US dollar bank account in Canada and are looking to convert in your bank account at better rates than offered by your bank, then this service is for you.

Cash transactions at Interchange Currency Exchange

Cash

We have exchange rates that are much better than the banks and we charge no fees.

Money Transfer services at Interchange Financial

Money Transfer

If you are transferring money internationally or receiving money from overseas, we can help you save money as well because of our better exchange rates.