Daily Updates

At the moment, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is in a surprisingly quiet phase as USD/CAD holds near the 1.4000 mark—a major psychological and technical level. The end of the longest U.S. government shutdown in history has introduced both opportunities and challenges for the Canadian dollar. The U.S. dollar has weakened on improved risk appetite, but uncertainty surrounding the wave of delayed U.S. economic data and the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on tariffs has kept the loonie locked in a narrow range. Markets remain hesitant as they wait for clarity from both economic releases and political developments south of the border.

The Canadian dollar is stuck in neutral this week, unable to shake off its slump even as a few fundamentals have turned in its favor. The USD/CAD pair is holding steady around 1.4045, hovering near six-month highs as traders wait for something new to drive momentum. The markets seem to be anticipating more Canadian dollar weakness — and continue to shrug off every piece of positive Canadian economic news. Stronger-than-expected Canadian job growth, firmer oil prices, and dovish talk from the U.S. Federal Reserve should have given the Loonie a lift, but so far, investors aren’t biting.

It was a volatile week for the Canadian dollar. The big move came Friday morning when Canada reported surprisingly strong employment data for September, which helped the currency recover part of its recent losses. Still, the USD/CAD exchange rate remains under pressure from global risk sentiment, interest rate expectations, and weaker commodity prices.

Global markets are wrapping up the week on a surprisingly positive note, with equity indices in Asia and Europe showing resilience and North America extending gains thanks to AI-tech momentum. But for currency watchers, the story is less about today’s moves and more about what lies ahead. The Canadian dollar, in particular, is hovering near four-month lows against the U.S. dollar, and the outlook hinges on central bank decisions, oil prices, and geopolitical risks that could shape trading into next week.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) is feeling the heat. Over the past two weeks, the loonie has slipped to a four-month low near 1.3940 per USD, posted its biggest weekly loss since February at 1.1%, and only managed a small rebound as exporters locked in favorable rates. Behind the moves is a mix of weak Canadian data, falling oil prices, and a strong U.S. dollar.
September’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 47.7, well below the 50 threshold that signals expansion, showing that the slowdown in Canada’s economy is deepening. At the same time, crude oil — one of Canada’s most important exports — has been sliding, undercutting demand for the loonie. Meanwhile, U.S. yields remain firm and American economic data continues to outperform, drawing investors into the greenback and leaving CAD on the defensive.

The Canadian dollar is looking wobbly lately. While other G10 currencies are putting up a fight against the U.S. dollar, the loonie is slouched in the corner and clearly gasping for air.
Overall, USD/CAD has been grinding higher for some time now, and it’s now circling the 1.3890 level — a fresh monthly high. That’s the kind of number that makes anyone with U.S. travel plans or cross-border payments cringe.

After bobbing in a tight range near 1.38, USD/CAD finally broke above 1.3850 on Tuesday—it’s highest level in two weeks—as traders look ahead to U.S. inflation data.
So what’s going on? Let’s break it down.

After a rough day in global bond markets Tuesday—where investors sold off government debt, driving borrowing costs to levels not seen in decades and raising concerns that economic conditions may continue to deteriorate—markets calmed somewhat on Wednesday. That gave stock markets a chance to stabilize, with the Nasdaq in particular bouncing higher after Google’s parent company Alphabet dodged a potential breakup in a major antitrust case brought forward by the U.S. government.

The Canadian dollar, or loonie, has been anything but boring this year. As we roll into fall 2025, traders, businesses, and travelers all want to know: where’s the loonie going next?
The answer isn’t simple. Canada’s economy is showing both resilience and weakness. GDP contracted 1.6% annualized in the second quarter of 2025 as exports plunged and business investment fell, yet household spending and housing stayed firm. This push and pull means the loonie is unable to make any clear breakout moves. Still, it isn’t in free fall and is holding up better than expected.

After weakening on the release of some dismal jobs data last week, the Canadian dollar has regained a bit of strength and is back trading in the familiar 1.375 to 1.38 range. The modest rebound has more to do with broad U.S. dollar weakness than any real surge in Canadian dollar strength.