Where is the Loonie Going?

Below is an interesting perspective.  The white line is the current spot price.  The orange line is the consensus of the analyst for the end of September and the red line is the implied probability as derived from the options market. The analyst community’s forecasts clearly indicate an expectation of a declining loonie (see below for why that maybe the case).  On the other hand, the implied probabilities in the options market suggest that market participants, on average, expect the Canadian currency to remain steady through that period.