With the US markets closed for the Independence Day holiday, the focus is on oil prices which are continuing to hold steady this morning at near 6-year highs. OPEC+ is struggling to reach an agreement as tensions mount between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over quotas. In particular, the UAE is not willing to agree to increased supply unless its own quota is increased. That failure to reach agreement on a supply increase is pushing oil prices up. USD to CAD is hovering around the 1.236 level in light trading. The US dollar ended last week on some weakness as a mixed June jobs report in that country caused a pause in the US dollar rally which had been ongoing since the Fed’s hawkish tilt a couple of weeks ago. The Fed’s stance will be further clarified on Wednesday afternoon when the minutes of the June meeting are disclosed. Between now and then the only thing that can move the exchange rate is developments at OPEC.
