Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.045 – 1.055
Update: Remarks by the President and political and diplomatic activity over the last 24 hours seem to have reduced the likelihood of military action in Syria by the West and consequently commodity prices have moderated from their recent highs over the last couple of days. At the same time, a series of economic releases this morning in the US came in at or above expected levels. The net result is a weakening Loonie that is down 0.2% and trading at 1.051.
The Big Picture: The commodity boom has seemingly ended (or is at least sputtering). Relatedly, Chinese and other emerging market economies have slowed notably. At the same time, the ongoing (admittedly halting) recovery in the US will sooner or later lead to a tapering of the Fed’s bond purchase programs. As to the timing of the announcement, there seems to be broad consensus forming about tapering beginning later this year with a majority of analysts focused on September. Closer to home, Canada’s new central banker shows no inclination towards tightening in the near future. As a result of all of this and not surprisingly, the CAD has declined 4% relative to the USD since the beginning of the year. We expect the CAD to be even lower relative to its US counterpart by the end of the year.
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