Expected USD/CAD Range: 1.048 – 1.053
Update: The Canadian Dollar is stronger today after four days of losses and trading around 1.051. The primary reason for the strength is the lowering of the tension level in Syria as military action no longer seems imminent while Obama seeks congressional approval over the next week. Over the next several days, the markets will remain focused on the possibility of military action in Syria as well as any indication as to the likelihood of Fed tapering later this month.
The Big Picture: The commodity boom has seemingly ended (or is at least sputtering). Relatedly, Chinese and other emerging market economies have slowed notably. At the same time, the ongoing (admittedly halting) recovery in the US will sooner or later lead to a tapering of the Fed’s bond purchase programs. As to the timing of the announcement, there seems to be broad consensus forming about tapering beginning later this year with a majority of analysts focused on September. Closer to home, Canada’s new central banker shows no inclination towards tightening in the near future. As a result of all of this and not surprisingly, the CAD has declined 4% relative to the USD since the beginning of the year. We expect the CAD to be even lower relative to its US counterpart by the end of the year.
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